The Science of Role Models: How Aspirations Change Behavior

Why showing kids what's possible is more powerful than telling them what to do

The Big Idea

A single hour of watching role models can change behavior for 5+ years.

This isn't motivational speaker hype—it's peer-reviewed research from Oxford and Cambridge, published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics (one of the top economics journals in the world).

The Study

Researchers in rural Ethiopia wanted to know: Can you change people's behavior just by showing them what's possible?

The Intervention

Treatment group: Watched four 15-minute documentaries (1 hour total) featuring local people who had escaped poverty through hard work and goal-setting
Control group: Watched entertainment TV (to control for the effect of watching TV)
Placebo group: Only surveyed

That's it. One hour of video. No money. No resources. No ongoing support.

Critical detail: The researchers specifically chose role models from the same region — people the audience could realistically see themselves becoming. Not distant celebrities. Not people from the capital city. Local people from similar backgrounds who had achieved what the audience wanted to achieve.

The Results (5 Years Later)

Outcome	Change
Agricultural investment	+21%
Hours worked on own farm	+1 hour/day
Spending on children's education	+39%
Durable assets (wealth)	+29%
Primary school completion	2x more likely

One hour of video → 5 years of sustained behavioral change.

The Mechanism: Aspirations as Reference Points

The researchers didn't just measure outcomes—they figured out why it worked.

What Changed (The Driver)

Aspirations increased and stayed elevated for 5 years.

When you see someone like you achieve something bigger, your mental "reference point" shifts upward. The gap between where you are and where you could be creates motivation to close that gap.

What Didn't Change (Ruled Out)

❌ Risk preferences (they didn't become bolder)
❌ Time preferences (they didn't become more patient)
❌ "Grit" (no change in perseverance scores)

Aspirations were the primary driver. Not personality. Not patience. Not grit. Just a higher sense of what's possible.

Why "Light-Touch" Worked

Traditional development programs assume you need:

Ongoing support
Financial resources
Training and education

This study shows that sometimes all you need is to show people what's possible.

The intervention was:

Cheap: One documentary screening
Quick: 1 hour total
Scalable: Same video works for thousands
Durable: Effects lasted 5+ years

The "No Frustration" Finding

Critics might worry: "What if you raise aspirations without giving people the tools to achieve them? Won't that cause frustration?"

The study tested this directly.

Result: No frustration effect. Treated households reported higher well-being and fewer months of food insecurity. Raising aspirations—even without providing resources—improved outcomes.

Why? Because higher aspirations led to changed behavior, which led to real gains. The aspiration itself unlocked the effort.

What This Means for Young Athletes

If a 1-hour documentary of local role models can change behavior for 5 years in rural Ethiopia, what happens when young athletes are exposed to role models daily?

The Traditional Approach

Coaches tell athletes what to do
Athletes are told to "work hard"
Generic motivation from national celebrities ("you can do it!")

The Role Model Approach

Athletes see local people who started where they are and achieved what they want
Specific behaviors modeled ("this is what D1 athletes did at your age — and many grew up right here in Iowa")
Reference point shifts from "this is normal" to "this is possible for someone like me"

Why Local Matters

The study didn't use famous people from far away. They used people from the same region — people the audience could realistically see themselves becoming.

For a young athlete in Iowa:

Distant celebrities = impressive but distant ("they're from somewhere else, different world")
Iowa athletes = relatable AND impressive ("they grew up here, went to school here, I could be them")

The psychological distance matters. Local heroes create bigger aspiration shifts than distant celebrities.

Key Takeaways

Showing beats telling. A documentary of role models outperformed all other interventions.
Reference points matter. What you believe is possible determines how hard you work.
LOCAL role models beat distant celebrities. The study specifically used people from similar backgrounds—not famous people from far away. Psychological distance matters. A kid in Iowa seeing athletes who grew up in Iowa is more powerful than seeing someone from LA.
Light-touch can be enough. You don't need expensive, intensive programs. Sometimes one powerful experience shifts the trajectory.
No downside to dreaming bigger. Raising aspirations without resources didn't cause frustration—it caused action.
Daily beats once. If a single 1-hour video produces 5-year changes, what happens with daily exposure to local role models?

The Research

Paper: "The Future in Mind: Aspirations and Long-term Outcomes in Rural Ethiopia"

Authors: Tanguy Bernard, Stefan Dercon, Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, Kate Orkin

Published: Quarterly Journal of Economics (2024)

Links:

Quote to Remember

"Aspirations act as reference points. When aspirations are raised, the gap between one's current status and their goal creates an incentive to increase effort and investment to close that gap."

What reference points are you setting for your athletes?

FAQs

Q: Does this research apply to American kids, not just rural Ethiopia?

A: The psychological mechanism—aspirations as reference points—is universal. The specific context differs, but the principle that "seeing is believing" applies across cultures. American sports research shows similar effects: athletes who are exposed to relatable role models develop higher aspirations and work harder.

Q: Why local role models instead of famous superstars?

A: Psychological distance matters. A superstar from far away can seem unattainable—"they're different from me." A local hero who started in similar circumstances makes success feel possible: "If they did it from here, maybe I can too."

Q: How do I find local role models for my child?

A: Look for athletes from your region who've achieved what your child aspires to. Iowa has produced Olympic wrestlers, NFL players, WNBA stars, and more. ISP's athlete profiles emphasize Iowans and Midwesterners for exactly this reason.

Featured Role Models

Dan Gable — Iowa wrestling legend, Olympic champion
Cael Sanderson — Iowa State's undefeated NCAA champion
All 37 Mindset Athletes — Mental frameworks from elite performers

Why This Matters for Iowa Families

The research is clear: showing kids what's possible is more powerful than telling them what to do. One hour of role model exposure created 5 years of behavioral change.

Iowa Sports Prep builds this into the curriculum. Every week, students engage with athletes who started where they are and achieved what they want. Not distant celebrities—but relatable examples that shift reference points upward.

That's the science behind what we do. That's why role models matter.